Geography of COVID19 and first policy answers in European regions

The sudden appearance and exponential increase in severe coronavirus cases disease (COVID-19), and the resulting pressure on healthcare systems, have led almost all European governments to put in place measures to limit their economic and social activities.

For the first time in recent history, deliberate political decisions have generated an economic and social crisis on an unprecedented scale. While most of the consequences of this crisis are still ahead of us, the first real effects are already being felt with the shutdown of entire sectors of the economy, rising unemployment and an explosion in public spending.

Although all have been affected, the circulation of the virus and therefore, the strain on healthcare systems did not impact European countries with the same intensity. And the differences are even greater at subnational scale, with a very high concentration of hospitals being overwhelmed in a small number of regions while most others were largely spared. Many statistics have been published to help us to understand the dynamics of the pandemic at international level (e.g. by the World Health Organization, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the European Commission, and several European and North American universities). But little has been released so far to enable reliable comparisons about the kinetics of COVID-19 between European regions. Daily reporting of cases and fatalities flooded the media, but, in the absence of better and more standardised approaches to testing populations and recording deaths, the real diffusion of the virus and the real mortality rates remain largely unknown and inter-regional comparisons misleading.

Of course, the social sciences cannot claim to contribute directly to knowledge of the medical dimensions of a pandemic. However, the circulation of COVID-19 intertwines medical and socio-spatial mechanisms. A geographical reading of the epidemic would provide a better understanding of how it spreads spatially, which could help us to understand why some areas are hit harder than others and the underlying social processes of diffusion. In the longer term, analysis of the links between urbanisation, mobility, local governance, population structures and the spread of COVID- 19 could also contribute to discussions aimed at identifying better spatial organisation for more resilient territories.

What is needed now is an effective mapping of the geography of the outbreak at the European scale. How can regional variations be explained? Is it possible to identify links between the spread of the disease and variables likely to influence it?

Can the different approaches taken to lockdowns explain some of these variations? This contribution is necessary to provide policy-makers with a genuine overview of how the strain on healthcare systems developed, using timely, reliable and comparable indicators.

Yet no matter what factors have influenced the diffusion of the pandemic, all European territories are facing its consequences, in particular in terms of losses in economic activities and jobs. Many indications already make clear that, without doubt, existing social and economic challenges, especially those that affect the most vulnerable citizens and left-behind places, will become substantially harder to tackle in the months and years to come as a result of the lockdowns. Upcoming impacts have started being identified and analysed in some countries and at the international level, but no European overview has been provided so far that focuses on regional or local levels. These views are challenging and need to be addressed with innovative policies and ideas.

In such times of emergency, policy responses by public authorities have had a direct and essential influence on the mitigation of the impacts of COVID-19. It is critical to share and understand what has been undertaken. What has proven to be efficient and could be repeated in the future in the event of another widespread emergency. ’In the longer term, analysing these policy responses in times of isolation and border closures could provide a real opportunity to estimate the true socio-economic value of territorial cooperation. In other words, it is necessary to increase mutual learning and identify lessons learned to make territorial systems more resilient. The contributions of the European associations of local and regional authorities to these efforts could be substantial.

As Vice-President Dubravka Šuica emphasizes in her message to ESPON, a better understanding of the age structure, population’s concentration or households composition can help predict the critical cases and aid in more precise planning. It can also support local and regional governments in taking more effective measures and in better preparing exit and recovery plans.

At ESPON EGTC, we think that it is now important for us to contribute to the efforts undertaken at EU, national and regional levels. To help gain a better understanding of the territorial patterns of the epidemics and to support the definition of renewed place-based policies to tackle the upcoming socio-economic crisis.