The demographic challenge: a commitment for the future of EU Cohesion Policy

The EU is at a crucial moment in which it faces a series of important challenges for the future, such as the ecological and digital transitions, social cohesion, strategic autonomy. Among the most prominent is the demographic challenge. 
Recent reports by the UN and the EU itself warn that the migratory flow towards urban areas continues to be the main demographic change on a global scale, with a concentration of people in urban areas, which will continue to increase until 2050, according to all the models analysed. 

Demographic change is not easy to analyse, but it is one of the most important challenges for the future of the EU, with a level of complexity that precludes simplistic solutions and requires the implementation of cross-cutting and holistic policies. 

Regardless of analyses of the origin and causes of current demographic changes, demographic issues have a very powerful impact on EU society. Most models analysing demographic trends indicate that the EU’s population in rural areas will continue to shrink and age in the coming years. 

This situation of polarisation between the rural and urban worlds is reflected in numerous countries in the EU, and is beginning to be a determining factor in the application of the EU’s own principle of territorial cohesion. 

Factors pointing to this trend include the general increase in life expectancy of citizens, a strong increase in labour migration to urban areas that offer greater opportunities, and poor planning of infrastructures and services, which ultimately jeopardise the cohesion of territories at regional and local levels.

Another factor that contributes negatively to the demographic change in these territories, and therefore to their social and economic cohesion, is the ‘brain drain’: highly qualified professionals are attracted to zones or geographical areas with greater and better job opportunities for the development of their skills.

These phenomena are in contrast to what is happening in urban areas, with totally opposite dynamics, especially in those metropolitan areas that are becoming poles of attraction for young people, with increasing population growth indicators.

This situation of polarisation between the rural and urban worlds is reflected in numerous countries in the EU, and is beginning to be a determining factor in the application of the EU’s own principle of territorial cohesion.

The EU’s Cohesion Policy, designed as a long-term policy to encourage the appropriate development of the EU’s regions and the harmonisation of growth and development indicators between them, should be subjected to a process of in-depth reflection, which will make it possible to design an appropriate funding scheme for 2028–2035 to tackle this demographic challenge.

Recent reports by the UN and the EU itself warn that the migratory flow towards urban areas continues to be the main demographic change on a global scale, with a concentration of people in urban areas, which will continue to increase until 2050.

This process of reflection on the future of the Cohesion Policy must take into account the threats the policy faces, such as the risk of becoming a catch-all for any eventuality or crisis. Above all, it must consider the challenges facing the EU in general, which the Cohesion Policy can help to solve: the ecological and digital transitions, the commitment to social cohesion, the flexibilisation and improvement of governance and, of course, the demographic challenge.

Another aspect to be taken into account in the coming period is intraregional imbalances. Even in regions described as more developed, we find situations of high imbalance between the urban territory (especially large cities) and the rest of the region’s territory.

It will therefore be essential to think about the dynamics between rural and urban areas when designing the Cohesion Policy, and the role that intermediate cities should play in the territory, as the backbone of the urban–rural relationship. We must also promote the application of the principles of the EU’s territorial agenda 2030 to guarantee the internal micro-cohesion of the regions.

Special mention should be made of the integrating vision of policies aimed at the younger population, with the design of incentives and opportunities that allow rural areas to become attractive areas for developing life and future projects, helping to keep the population in the territory.

There is no single policy or action that can reverse the current dynamics, but the Cohesion Policy, with its investment power and multiplicity of actions, can help to rebalance rural and urban territories in the EU.

There is no single policy or action that can reverse the current dynamics, but the Cohesion Policy, with its investment power and multiplicity of actions, can help to rebalance rural and urban territories in the EU.

A long-term vision of rural areas, adequate investment in digitalisation, the planning of basic services available to citizens, infrastructures to structure territories, investment in skills training and the generation of attractions for the younger population should be some of the pillars of the future Cohesion Policy. These will help to reverse the demographic dynamic in which we currently find ourselves.

In short, we are at a crucial moment for the design and planning of the future Cohesion Policy, which must help to combat the demographic challenge. The European Parliament must play a fundamental role in this design and planning, in its capacity as co-legislator and guarantor of the representation of the citizens of the EU. Only a cohesive EU with territorial balance will guarantee the future.